Back on Top!

It was a great night for the Reds.  A commanding 10-3 win over the Indians coupled with a 4-2 loss for the Cardinals puts the Reds back in first place by a half game.  Aaron Harang didn't pitch the cleanest game, but he got through seven innings on just 108 pitches despite walking five and giving up two home runs.  Logan Ondrusek and Micah Owings each threw a clean inning of relief.  Offensively, the Reds were paced by Drew Stubbs with a homer and 4 RBIs.  Scott Rolen added a homer, and Joey Votto extended his reached base streak to a MLB season high 33 games by drawing two walks.  Besides Harang, Votto was the only Reds starter without a hit.

By itself, taking first place back from the Cardinals would be a big night, but it was a great night for nearly the whole organization.  In AAA, Louisville's Travis Wood shut out Norfolk 7-0, striking out 9 in eight efficient innings.  At the AA level, the Carolina Mudcats had a solid 11-4 win behind the hitting of Kris Negron (2 for 4 with a 2B, HR, BB and 4 RBI) and David Sappelt (a double short of the cycle) and a solid start from Tom Cochran.  (If there was one down-side to the night, it is that Brad Boxberger gave up 3 runs in one inning of relief in his AA debut.)  At high A Lynchburg, James Avery struck out 7 in five innings as Lynchburg beat Kinston 9-1.  Brodie Greene had 4 hits, and Josh Fellhauer added 3 for the Hillcats.  Then there's Dayton.  They lost to Lansing 7-6 in 11 innings.  I guess you can't win them all.  On the plus side, Cameron Satterwhite continued his torrid hitting with 3 doubles and Tim Crabbe threw five one-hit innings (although he did walk six).

After a rough first half of the season for the Reds minor league teams - all four top teams were in last place in their respective divisions when Dayton and Lynchburg went to their All-Star breaks - it is good to turn the page and look ahead to the second half of the season.  Louisville has a 10 game deficit to make up on Columbus for the division and a 7 game deficit to Scranton for the wild card.  Unlike the other three minor league teams, they don't get to start with a clean slate for the second half.  Hopefully Carolina, Lynchburg, and Dayton will take advantage of this opportunity and put together a strong showing in the second half.  There is a lot of talent in the system.  They've just got to convert that into wins.  Tonight was a step forward for the organization.

To K or Not to K?

A few days ago (before the Reds' absolutely dreadful performance against the Mariners), I was wondering what to make of Drew Stubbs.  He strikes out a ton, and Adam Dunn showed that Reds' fans have little tolerance for strikeouts - even from good players.  It's pretty easy to see why Stubbs strikes out so much.  According to fangraphs, only five qualified players have lower Contact %.  While Stubbs struggles to make contact, his judgment of the strike zone is adequate enough.  His O-Swing % of 24.5 is good, and his Z-Swing % of 62.4 isn't that bad.  His struggles really do just come down to being unable to make consistent contact.

This prompted me to wonder whether understanding the strike zone or being able to make contact is the more important skill to possess.  I've done some digging, and I propose that "what separates the men from the boys" is being able to swing with authority at pitches inside the strike zone.  (Everything I'm about to present is the result of pulling data from fangraphs on May 18 for the 2010 season only.)

Batters who make contact at a high rate tend to swing at fewer pitches inside the strike zone.  In the chart below, I've plotted two series.  Each data point is a player, with the Reds players as the red series and all other players as the blue series. The x-axis is Contact % and the y-axis is Z-Swing %, both from fangraphs.  I've included a trendline which shows that Z-Swing % decreases as Contact % increases.  For what it is worth, the Reds players in this exercise are Johnny Gomes, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Orlando Cabrera, Scott Rolen, and Drew Stubbs.  Cabrera, Rolen, and Stubbs swing at roughly 60% of the pitches inside the strike zone, while everyone else is closer to 70-75%.  Cabrera and Rolen make contact at a high rate, while Stubbs' 71% contact rate makes him the lower-left red dot.

At first, I thought this suggested that batters who are more confident in their ability to make contact are more likely to "wait for their pitch."  In effect, I thought that high contact rate led to a low Z-Swing %.  After looking into it further, I now think something else is at work.  Before I get there though, some more findings...

Contact % has little effect on whether batters swing at pitches outside the strike zone.  Again, I'll use a similar chart to illustrate, this time with O-Swing % on the y-axis.

There is still a very slight downward trend, but it is nothing like the previous chart.  So, we've established that hitters who make good contact are less likely to swing at pitches inside the strike zone, but not really any less likely to swing at pitches outside the strike zone.  If good contact hitters were "waiting for their pitch", they'd be swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone than their more aggressive (inside the zone) counterparts.  What's the explanation then?

Better hitters swing at more pitches inside the strike zone.  This time, I'm comparing the Z-Swing % to wOBA, again from fangraphs.  I've moved the Z-Swing % to the x-axis and put wOBA on the y-axis.

There is a fair amount of variation in this chart, so the trendline isn't a great fit, but you can see that the trendline does tend to rise as Z-Swing % increases.  As for the Reds, we can see that Scott Rolen bucks the trend here, putting up a high wOBA despite a low Z Swing %.  Only Stubbs and Cabrera produce a lower wOBA than their Z Swing % suggests among the Reds. 

We've now established that batters with higher wOBAs tend to swing at more pitches inside the strike zone, that batters who swing at more pitches inside the strike zone tend to make contact less frequently, and that how often a batter makes contact doesn't really influence how often the batter swings at pitches out of the zone.  This all suggests that better hitters (as measured by wOBA) take a more aggressive approach on pitches inside the strike zone.  They swing at pitches in the zone more frequently, and they have a higher wOBA, so they must hit them with more authority, right?


Hitters who swing at a lot of pitches inside the strike zone also hit the ball with more power.   This chart shows ISO from fangraphs on the y-axis.

Again, there's a lot of spread here, but there's also a definite trend.  The Reds story is much the same, with Rolen significantly outperforming the typical player with his Z-Swing %, Cabrera underperforming - is there no spot on the bench for him?!  Brandon Philips actually has a lower ISO than the typical player with his Z Swing %, but I suspect the change from batting cleanup to batting second has something to do with that, as he's clearly changed his approach at the plate. 

The difference in ISO between a typical batter who swings at 60% of the pitches in the zone and a batter who swings at 70% of the pitches in the zone is .050.  This suggests that batters who swing at more pitches in the zone also swing harder.  Batters who swing harder also miss more, which explains the first chart above.  Batters who swing at more pitches inside the strike zone miss more pitches too.

To summarize, while major leaguers need to be able to make contact with regularity and lay off pitches outside the strike zone, really good hitters swing harder and more often at pitches that are in the strike zone.  One final chart to drive the point home...  In this chart, I grouped players based on their wOBA, then plotted their Contact % vs. their Z Swing %.  There is a clear tendency for the dark blue and pink points (higher wOBA) to fall on the upper left and the yellow and light blue points (lower wOBA) to fall on the lower right.  Better hitters swing at more good pitches and hit fewer of them.

Drew Stubbs may very well strike out a lot because he swings and misses a lot.  As opposed to worrying about making contact more though, if Stubbs is like most players, he'd be better served by swinging (and swinging hard) at more of the strikes that he's watching go by.

Time for Heisey?

Johnny Cueto got the start for the Reds tonight, and pitched well despite taking the loss.  He allowed one run and four hits while striking out five and walking two in 5 2/3 innings. Unfortunately for him and the Reds, that wasn't enough to beat Cliff Lee.  Lee went the distance for the shutout, fanning seven while allowing just six hits and no walks.  Three of Lee's strikeouts were of rookie Chris Heisey, including the one that ended the game. 

I didn't realize how well Heisey has played in the limited opportunities that he's received since his call up.  Over at redreporter, they suggest that Heisey ought to be getting more playing time, mainly at the expense of Stubbs in center field.  Obviously Heisey won't keep up his .481 wOBA (before tonight's game), I think he should be getting more time too.  Hopefully they'll let him play with Gomes as DH this week.  If they do, I'd like to see the Reds give Heisey a shot to lead off.  If you've got to have Cabrera in the lineup, you can at least bat him near the bottom.  Heisey would at least provide some hope that the lead off spot might not be wasted.

What of Drew Stubbs then?  Should he be benched?  He's been OK, but he certainly hasn't been outstanding.  Supposedly he plays an excellent center field, but surprisingly, his UZR checks in at -2.6 so far this season.  Heisey, on the other hand, has a 0.2 UZR in center field and a 1.9 UZR when you factor in left and right.  I imagine Stubbs is probably still the better defender, but I also imagine that he's not nearly the defensive whiz that he's made out to be (at least by the Reds radio broadcast team, although I've seen it suggested elsewhere too).  At the plate, Stubbs is nothing special either, posting a .322 wOBA.  Still, if you've got to put someone on the bench to make room for Heisey, it has to be Stubbs.  Gomes (despite posting a -4.9 UZR in left field) checks in at 0.9 WAR, and Jay Bruce sits at 1.3.  After struggling early, Stubbs has come around and now sits at 0.5 WAR.  But Heisey is at 0.8 WAR in just 41 plate appearances over 26 games!  He's not that good, but he's done enough to warrant a chance.  Sure, the Reds look fine in center field, and they've got a huge hole in their bullpen that needs to be addressed, but they may be able to improve their plight if they gave Heisey more - if not most - of those center field at bats and let him do it from the lead off spot.

Reds Waste a Good Outing by Leake

Mike Leake pitched a gem tonight, but he left with nothing to show for it. After seven shutout innings, he gave up a leadoff "triple" to start the eighth. It was really a routine fly ball to center, but Drew Stubbs lost the ball in the lights or clouds or something. One more double, and Leake exits trailing 1-0. A Brandon Phillips home run got Leake off the hook, but it wouldn't be enough, as the Pirates went on to win 2-1.

(I got to watch a few innings of the game on my MLB At Bat 2010 app on my iPod Touch. It was the first game I've really watched, and I was very pleasantly surprised at how easy it was to watch on the small screen.  If you are considering the app, it is well worth the $15.)

As far as I could tell from the parts I saw, the pivotal play in the game was the Stubbs misplay. Stubbs has a reputation as an excellent center fielder. When his bat was struggling and Dusty Baker dropped him in the lineup, Baker defended him by saying that Stubbs had to stay in the lineup because his glove was needed in center. The fact is, however, Stubbs has not played well in the field this season, and tonight's gaffe doesn't exactly instill confidence that he is the long-term answer in center. According to fangraphs, his UZR for the season stands at -4.0, meaning he's cost the Reds a 4 runs (or a little under half a win) this season when compared to an average CF. In contrast, his UZR was 6.3 in just 42 games last season. I wonder which one is the real Drew Stubbs.  There have always been questions about his bat, especially because of his tendency to strikeout.  With a brutal 31.3% - even worse than Adam Dunn, who the Reds drove out of town because of all the strikeouts - Stubbs has the 8th highest K% in all of baseball.  If Stubbs continues to whiff at such prolific rates and continues to play such sloppy sloppy defense, we may be looking for a new center fielder soon.

Another Solid Outing for Leake - and for Baker

Mike Leake gave the Reds six solid innings tonight, beating Cardinals stalwart Adam Wainwright in the process.  Leake gave up a Colby Rasmus home run and walked three while striking out five.  For the game, Leake threw 97 pitches - 60 for strikes - continuing an encouraging trend for Leake and the Reds.

It has been my belief for some time that the Reds have turned a corner and are starting to become a fairly well run organization.  They've got a lot of young talent in the minors, and they seem to be making smarter investments in the team.  In my mind, the big thing holding them back now was Dusty Baker.  As the season has progressed though, I'm finding myself wondering if Dusty's learned a few things himself.

I've have two main complaints about Baker over the years.

• He has been known to favor veterans over younger talent.
• He has a history of abusing his starting pitching.

Dusty has shown some promise on both fronts this year.

I really thought there was no way that Leake,  Wood, or Chapman would win the Spring Training battle for the fifth starter spot, so I was quite surprised when Leake got the nod.  Of course, the more veteran options were terrible, and the Reds really had no choice but to select between the youngsters.  Still, at the end of Spring Training, I was not so believing that anything had changed.  The top young position prospects - Frazier, Heisey, and Francisco in particular - really didn't see much playing time in the spring and weren't sent down until just before the season got underway.  In Francisco's case, he initially made the club - to pinch hit instead of play regularly - but that was just until Leake had to be placed on the active roster on his first day to pitch.

Since then though, Baker has really shown me something in his handling of the Drew Stubbs situation.  Clearly, Stubbs is struggling at the plate.  Between that and the atrocious handling of the Willy Tavares fiasco last year, I fully expected Baker to sour on Stubbs.  To his credit, Baker has stood by Stubbs, and his effort to move Stubbs down in the lineup to help rebuild his confidence appears to be a good move even with no real viable options at the top of the order.  In the six games since the move, Stubbs is 7 for 24 with two homers and 8 RBIs (according to baseball-reference.com).  In addition to Stubbs, Baker has been giving more playing time to Ryan Hanigan as well, which I'm glad to see.  I'd still like to see Heisey get more time, but with Gomes hitting well right now, it's understandable that Heisey's not getting more opportunities.

The other thing I've been pleased to see is that Baker has overworked his starting pitchers nearly as bad as in the past.  I was particularly worried about Leake, given his lack of professional experience.  Baker hasn't allowed him to throw more than 106 pitches in a game yet though.  We'll have to see if Baker will be able to pull Leake when he finally labors through a start.  Baker hasn't been so kind to Homer Bailey so far this year.  Bailey has been allowed to throw more than 110 pitches twice so far this season, going as high as 121 pitches on May 1 against the Cardinals (when he REALLY shouldn't have been allowed to face Pujols in that final at bat).  Still, that doesn't compare to the end of last season when Baker allowed Bailey to throw 112 or more pitches in 7 of his final 9 starts (including 6 in a row).  Bronson Arroyo has not thrown more than 109 pitches in a game this year, but he threw more than that in ten different games last season.  Aaron Harang already has five games this season where he's thrown fewer than 105 pitches after having only 10 such games all last year.  On the other hand, Harang has thrown games of 116 and 121 pitches already this season.   Johnny Cueto did go as high as 118 pitches on May 5, but other than that hasn't topped 110.  (Of course, last year Cueto never topped 112.)  Also encouraging is that after each of the five games where a Reds starter has exceeded 110 pitches (twice each by Bailey and Harang, once by Cueto), that pitcher was given an extra day of rest before his next start.

If Dusty can keep this pitching staff healthy and can take make use of some of the nearly-ready talent in the high minors down the stretch this year, the Reds may just have enough to make a run at the Wild Card (if not the Cardinals).  That's still not likely to happen, but it is a whole lot likelier than I thought it was when the season began.