The One That Got Away

The Reds got back on the horse tonight with a 3-1 victory over the Mets.  Bronson Arroyo threw eight innings of one-run ball.  Brandon Phillips homered and drove in two runs.  Chris Heisey hit the go-ahead-homer in the seventh.  (He should really play more!)  This was a welcome change after Johan Santana shut the Reds down last night.  Of course, it could have been worse...

When I went to bed last night, the Reds had lost, and the Cardinals were winning 9-3 in the ninth inning.  I was resigned to the Reds' lead in the Central shrinking to a game, and just hoped that things turned around tonight.  Well, I was stunned to wake up this morning to find out that the Cards had lost in an epic meltdown (or "Meltdown", for the fangraphs followers in the audience) by Ryan Franklin.  The Cardinals have to be kicking themselves over that loss, and if they fall a game short of making the playoffs, they'll certainly look back to the game and wonder what could have been.

Of course, this just makes all of us Reds fans that much happier.  Not only did this loss by the Cardinals keep the Reds atop their perch in the NL Central by two full games (three if the Cardinals choke away tonight's game, which is currently tied 7-7 in the 8th.), but it also provides some psychological relief for the Reds own meltdown at the hands of the Braves back in May.  If my memory serves me correctly, the score of that game was also 9-3 going into the bottom of the ninth.  Mike Leake had pitched a solid game and was in line for the win.  Seven runs later, the Reds had been handed a shocking defeat. 

It all happened so quick too.  I remember where I was.  I had spent the day downtown in DC for work, and I came home on the Metro.  I got in my car just in time to hear the sports report on WTOP radio at 15 after the hour.  They announced that the Reds had a 9-3 lead going into the ninth inning.  I was thrilled.  The next WTOP sports report came just as I was pulling into my garage at 45 after the hour.  They announced that the Reds had lost 10-9.  I was disappointed to be sure.  Still, even though it was very early in the season, I had high hopes for the Reds this year.  I thought the Wild Card was not out of the question, although I really didn't think we could hang with the Cardinals like we have in the division.  I just couldn't shake the feeling that the Reds were really going to want that game back come September. 

Now?  I'm not so sure.  The Cardinals have their own game that they flushed down the toilet, and the Reds are serious threats (if not favorites at this point) to win the division now.  In fact, coolstandings.com suggests that the Reds have better than a 60% chance of winning the division at this point.  The chart below (from coolstandings.com) shows how the Reds division, wild card, and playoff chances have changed over the season.  On June 12, I posted that I was concerned about the disparity between the Reds and Cardinals upcoming schedules through the All-Star break.  I was just hoping the Reds would stay within hailing distance over this stretch, but they've really turned it on, particularly over this road trip.

I wouldn't go so far as to label the Reds front-runners, but the longer this lasts the more legitimate the Reds appear to be.  I'm still not to the point that I expect the Reds to win the division, but I'm definitely expecting them to be playing for it right up to the last week of the season.  If they lose the division by a game to the Cardinals, I'll no doubt be crushed.  At the same time, I'll probably be less inclined to dwell on that collapse against the Braves now, knowing that the Cardinals had to overcome a very similar meltdown just a couple of months later.  On the other hand, if the Reds come up a game short of the Wild Card it will be very tough to swallow.  Hopefully they'll keep putting "W"s in the books, and we won't have to worry about it!

A Move to Be Made?

The Reds signed Gary Matthews, Jr. to a minor league contract today to play center field for Louisville.  Somehow, I don't think that's the move that's going to push the Reds past the Cardinals (who they only trail by a half game after the Cards loss tonight).  That being the case, what should the Reds do?

The Bullpen

Obviously the bullpen has been horrible this season, but they've looked better since calling up Jordan Smith from AA Carolina.  The Smith call-up was a surprise move, but the 24-year-old righty has looked very good, striking out four and walking no one in 4 2/3 innings of work.  His 4.20 FIP suggests his 1.93 ERA isn't likely to last, but that wasn't going to happen anyway.  Besides Smith, Logan Ondrusek and Nick Masset have shown signs of life lately.  Throw in the amazing season Arthur Rhodes is having, and the bullpen may not be as bad as they looked in the first half of June.

Of course, the Reds also have an embarrassment of pitching riches down on the farm, although they seem to be grooming all the top talent to join the rotation.   It was big news this week when Aroldis Chapman was allowed to pitch in relief during Edinson Volquez's rehab start for Louisville.  Chapman seems to me to be an ideal candidate to log some innings in the bullpen this season.  He's young, so the Reds will look to limit his innings.  To this point, he hasn't shown the pitch efficiency to be able to work deep into games.  His electric fastball would play a tick faster coming out of the pen.  Letting him throw every few days and get his feet wet in the bullpen seems like the right move to me.  Oddly enough, the other starter I would consider moving to the bullpen for the season is Edinson Volquez. He's been outstanding in his rehab starts, and the Reds appear to be intent on giving him a spot in the rotation.  It seems to me that Volquez could be better served by more cautious use coming out of the pen this season.  Plus, like Volquez, his electric stuff would play well from the pen.

Shortstop and Leadoff Hitter

Besides the bullpen, shortstop seems to be the glaring hole.  It's not just that Orlando Cabrera is having a rough year; it's also that Dusty Baker keeps running him out there as the leadoff man.  I'd give Paul Janish a shot to see what he can do, batting eighth (or ninth, if you want to use your lineup more efficiently).  We know his glove is better that Cabrera, and he's got more upside.  If you play Janish though, who should hit leadoff then?  Honestly, I don't care.  There are plenty of options that are better than Cabrera.  I'd suggest letting Chris Heisey give it a shot.  If you're not willing to push either Stubbs or Gomes aside, let him play in place of Bruce once every week or two, in place of Gomes once a series, and in place of Stubbs once a series.  His OBP is trails only Votto and Hanigan, and while that isn't likely to last, he's done all you can ask of him given the time he's been getting.  Plus, he's been solid in the field.  Gomes is terrible out in left, so the pitching staff would welcome that move.  Even playing him in center ahead of Stubbs might not be so bad.  Everything I've heard suggests that Stubbs is a great defender, but his UZR certainly doesn't suggest that he's anything more than average so far this year.  (Granted, half a season is a small sample size for UZR.)  Personally, I'd rather see Heisey and Janish get a shot now, and shift Cabrera and Stubbs to the bench.

Starting Rotation


So, is that it?  Call up a few pitchers and shuffle the lineup, and the Reds are good to go?  I don't think so.  I think there's still one hole that needs to be addressed.  I think the Reds need an elite top-of-the-rotation pitcher.  Forget St. Louis.  If the Reds do get past the Cardinals or claim the Wild Card, do you really want to go into the post-season with Harang-Cueto-Arroyo as your starting rotation?  I think not.  The funny thing is, the rotation has been solid.  Plus, there's great depth.  The Reds are planning to skip Mike Leake a few times as the season wears on in order to limit his innings, but they've still got Sam Lecure pitching OK and Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez coming back from injury at some point.  Throw in Travis Wood and Matt Maloney in Louisville, and you could make a case that the Reds have nine decent starting pitchers.  If I was Walt Jocketty, I'd be looking to swap some of those decent starting pitchers for a big-time ace.  I'd seriously consider a half-year Cliff Lee rental.  If he likes playing for the Reds, they could sign him long-term.  If not, let him go, take two additional first-round picks in next year's draft, and hope Chapman is ready to take his spot in the rotation next year.

What might it take to acquire Lee?  His contract is favorable, so he'll command some top prospects.  Of course, he would just be a half-year rental, so that lessens the cost a little bit.  Supposedly the Mariners want a significant catching prospect included in the package of prospects.  Devin Mesoraco has had an excellent season so far, even showing some pop with a .567 SLG (although just a .267 OBP) for AA Carolina.  Plus, the Reds just drafted Yasmani Grandal in the first round, so they wouldn't have to look far to find their replacement.  If Mesoraco and Grandal are too green for the Mariners liking, perhaps they could be interested in Ryan Hanigan.  He's not going to be a star, but he's been solid splitting time with Ramon Hernandez.  (I'd hate to lose Hanigan, but for Cliff Lee, you'd do it in a heartbeat.)  The Mariners probably would want a couple of other good prospects too.  Yonder Alonso is blocked at first base here, but he would easily top Casey Kotchman's horrendous .254 OPS thus far.  I imagine he'd make a great trade chip.   Throw in Matt Maloney (or Travis Wood or Sam LeCure, although I'd prefer to see Maloney be the one to go) to take Lee's place in Seattle's rotation, and we ought to be pretty close to a deal.  I'm not a prospect evaluator, but it sounds pretty fair to me.  The Reds would be giving up a lot of talent if they lost Mesoraco, Alonso, and Maloney, but they'd be getting Cliff Lee for the rest of this year, and two new draft picks to re-stock the farm with for next season.

Conclusion

I really like where the Reds are positioned right now.  They've got a tough schedule coming up, but they're playing well with just a few exceptions.  The bullpen has shown signs of life, and the Reds have more than enough pitching depth in the organization to cure any problems that creep up there from within.  Orlando Cabrera is a bad shortstop and an awful leadoff man.  I don't really see any appealing shortstop options on the trade market, so I'd move Janish to short and give Heisey a shot to see if he can hold down an outfield spot while hitting leadoff.  Other than that, I think this team has what it takes to be a contender.

Of course, being a contender simply gets you into the discussion.  It takes more to put you over the top.  I think what the Reds will need in September is a front-of-the-rotation starter, and I'd like to see the Reds try to put a package together to go out and get the best one on the market.  I'm not sure if a package of Mesoraco, Alonso, and Maloney is enough to pry Cliff Lee away from the Mariners, but I sure would like to see the Reds try to offer something like that.

Time for Heisey?

Johnny Cueto got the start for the Reds tonight, and pitched well despite taking the loss.  He allowed one run and four hits while striking out five and walking two in 5 2/3 innings. Unfortunately for him and the Reds, that wasn't enough to beat Cliff Lee.  Lee went the distance for the shutout, fanning seven while allowing just six hits and no walks.  Three of Lee's strikeouts were of rookie Chris Heisey, including the one that ended the game. 

I didn't realize how well Heisey has played in the limited opportunities that he's received since his call up.  Over at redreporter, they suggest that Heisey ought to be getting more playing time, mainly at the expense of Stubbs in center field.  Obviously Heisey won't keep up his .481 wOBA (before tonight's game), I think he should be getting more time too.  Hopefully they'll let him play with Gomes as DH this week.  If they do, I'd like to see the Reds give Heisey a shot to lead off.  If you've got to have Cabrera in the lineup, you can at least bat him near the bottom.  Heisey would at least provide some hope that the lead off spot might not be wasted.

What of Drew Stubbs then?  Should he be benched?  He's been OK, but he certainly hasn't been outstanding.  Supposedly he plays an excellent center field, but surprisingly, his UZR checks in at -2.6 so far this season.  Heisey, on the other hand, has a 0.2 UZR in center field and a 1.9 UZR when you factor in left and right.  I imagine Stubbs is probably still the better defender, but I also imagine that he's not nearly the defensive whiz that he's made out to be (at least by the Reds radio broadcast team, although I've seen it suggested elsewhere too).  At the plate, Stubbs is nothing special either, posting a .322 wOBA.  Still, if you've got to put someone on the bench to make room for Heisey, it has to be Stubbs.  Gomes (despite posting a -4.9 UZR in left field) checks in at 0.9 WAR, and Jay Bruce sits at 1.3.  After struggling early, Stubbs has come around and now sits at 0.5 WAR.  But Heisey is at 0.8 WAR in just 41 plate appearances over 26 games!  He's not that good, but he's done enough to warrant a chance.  Sure, the Reds look fine in center field, and they've got a huge hole in their bullpen that needs to be addressed, but they may be able to improve their plight if they gave Heisey more - if not most - of those center field at bats and let him do it from the lead off spot.