Crowded in the Middle

I can't really recall a situation like the Reds face right now with their starting rotation.  In my mind, they've got ten decent starters, both for the remainder of this year and in future years, but none of those guys really stand out as top of the rotation kind of guys.  What should they do?  Let's look at what they've got to work with.  Several of the pitchers have some striking similarities, which, in my opinion, only makes it more difficult to figure out what to do.

The Veterans

Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang are the first guys to discuss.  They've been around the block, and we know pretty well what we're getting with them.  Both are free agents after this year, provided the Reds don't pick up their $13M options.  (Cot's Baseball Contracts has some nice salary information which helped me put this together.)  To this point, Arroyo has been worth 1.2 WAR and Harang 1.0 WAR this season, so they're not exactly living up to their current contracts at the moment.  Despite that, they continue to give the Reds more or less average production, as they have for several years.  They don't overpower guys; their stuff is basically average.  In fact, Arroyo's fastball only clocks in at 88.0, which is faster than only a dozen or so qualified starters in the majors.  Harang's is a more respectable, but still below average, 90.5.  

I've always thought of each of them as "innings-eaters", but after looking at the stats, I can see that's only really true of one of them.  Arroyo is working on a streak of five straight 200+ inning seasons and appears likely to get there this year as well.  In looking at the stats, I was surprised to find that Harang hasn't been so reliable these last few years.  Depending on how long his current back injury keeps him out, he could be looking at his third straight year of failing to hit 200 innings.  I tend to think that Harang is more likely to give you a big game, while Arroyo is more consistent and less likely to throw out a stinker.  The bottom line is, of all the guys on the staff, these two are the known quantities.  They're basically average pitchers who are going to give you six innings and keep you in the game more often than not.  Harang's inability to stay healthy at this stage of his career appears to make Arroyo the better bet going forward, both this year and in the future.  I think it is pretty safe to say that Harang's option will be declined next year.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds try to bring Arroyo back on a two-year $16-18M contract or something like that.

Random Thoughts as the Reds Pound the Pirates

Game Recap

The Reds seem to like their one game lead in the Central.  The exploded out of the gate tonight.  Johnny Cueto struck out the first two batters he faced on the way to a nine-strikeout, no run performance over 6 excellent innings.  Offensively, Scott Rolen snapped an 0 for 11 slump with a three-run homer in the first, and Jay Bruce followed with a homer of his own.  The Reds cruised from there to an 8-2 victory.

Transaction and Injury Notes

Drew Sutton was called up, taking the spot of Paul Janish who was placed on the bereavement list.  Sutton hasn't really done anything noteworthy in Louisville as far as I can tell, but this is just a temporary move. 

According to Mark Sheldon, Sam LeCure will get the start tomorrow in what would ordinarily be Homer Bailey's turn in the rotation.  LeCure has been excellent for Louisville so far this season.  On a staff that includes Aroldis Chapman, Travis Wood, and Matt Maloney, Lecure has been the Bats best pitcher so far this season.  That's really saying something.

In the majors, Joey Votto is sitting again due to the stiff neck that kept him out yesterday.  Also, Brandon Phillips left the game early tonight due to injury.  I wasn't really paying attention, but it didn't sound too serious from what I could tell.

On the Farm

Aroldis Chapman got the ball tonight for Louisville and pitched well.  Chapman fanned seven in five scoreless innings.  He only threw 90 pitches, which is better than he's been doing, but still a bit inefficient for my taste.  Still, it is exciting to think what Chapman can bring to the table when he's ready.

Devin Mesoraco is having another big night down in Lynchburg too.  He's 3 for 4 with a walk and hit his tenth home run on the season.  He hasn't shown much at the plate until this year.  Let's hope he keeps it up, because he's been excellent this season so far.  (It's a good thing too, because other than Mesoraco, it seems to me that the talent in the Reds system is either REALLY young or already in AAA - and other than the pitchers, the "top prospects" aren't showing me a whole lot this year.)

Beyond the Upper Deck - Not June 4!

I purchased tickets tonight to see the Reds live on June 4 against the Nationals in DC.  There's a chance that it may also be Steven Strasburg's MLB debut, although I read something today suggesting that the Nats are going to wait till mid-June to call him up.  That's a real head-scratcher.  My seats are in the left field corner, so its not like I'll be right on top of the action if Strasburg is there anyway.

Thoughts While Watching the Mets and Yankees

It's not often that I get to see much baseball anymore since I don't have cable, so tonight I was treated to the FOX game of the week: Yankees - Mets. Mike Pelphrey pitched very well, and the Mets survived despite the Yankees eighth inning threat.

Joe Buck and Tim McCarver announced the game. I'm not a fan of either of them; they're both too full of themselves for my taste. McCarver did talk about something that caught my attention though.  He spent some time talking about a recent SI story in which Nolan Ryan shared his view that pitchers today ought to be able to throw as many pitches in a start as pitchers in Ryan's day did. I didn't see the article, but I assume Ryan's reasoning is that pitchers are generally in better shape than they used be. McCarver seemed to suggest he agreed with Ryan, although if he came right out and said so, I missed it.

I don't know if pitchers today are able to throw as many pitches as they were allowed to throw back then, but I do strongly believe that they shouldn't throw that many pitches, for two reasons. First, the game has changed dramatically. Batters work the count much better than they used to, rarely giving an at bat away. This means pitchers have to be very precise with their pitches. They can't just throw it close and wait for the batter to hit their pitch. When a batter works his way into a good count, he's got the leverage in the at bat, forcing the pitcher to throw something meaty. When the pitcher has to throw a hitter's pitch, the stress on the pitcher is greater.  Since the batters are better at getting into these counts now, I believe that pitchers are not able to throw as many pitches on a consistent basis as pitchers in Ryan's day did.

Even if pitchers are able to throw that many pitches, I don't think they should do so. My second reason is that more than ever before, baseball players are viewed as a very expensive investment for a team. Pitchers are asked to push the limits of what the human body can do. There has been a lot of work done to show that overworking pitchers leads to injury, with the Reds' own Dusty Baker being the poster child for his handling of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood in their Cubs days together. The fact is, pushing a fatigued body to attempt to perform on a regular basis for the marginal benefit that could be gained with a few extra pitches at the end of a long start just doesn't outweigh the long-term business risk posed by such a maneuver.

As I typed entry, the Reds won and regained first place from the Cardinals. Johnny Cueto was coming off two excellent outings, but threw 113 pitches in his last game. In an earlier post this week, I noted that Baker had given his pitchers an extra day off when throwing more than 110 pitches. I speculated that he wouldn't do that with Cueto this time around, and I said it would cost the team before this stretch of games was over. Dusty didn't give Cueto the extra day; however, he did the next best thing.  Despite Cueto pitching another excellent game and the game being in an AL park (where there is no temptation to wait till the pitcher's spot in the lineup to hit for the pitcher), Dusty pulled Cueto after just 6 innings and 93 pitches. A few years ago (maybe even last year), Dusty doesn't make that move. The fact that he did gives us Reds fans hope that we may be able to manage our considerable talent well enough to give St. Louis a run for their money. Hopefully he keeps it up.