Crowded in the Middle

I can't really recall a situation like the Reds face right now with their starting rotation.  In my mind, they've got ten decent starters, both for the remainder of this year and in future years, but none of those guys really stand out as top of the rotation kind of guys.  What should they do?  Let's look at what they've got to work with.  Several of the pitchers have some striking similarities, which, in my opinion, only makes it more difficult to figure out what to do.

The Veterans

Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang are the first guys to discuss.  They've been around the block, and we know pretty well what we're getting with them.  Both are free agents after this year, provided the Reds don't pick up their $13M options.  (Cot's Baseball Contracts has some nice salary information which helped me put this together.)  To this point, Arroyo has been worth 1.2 WAR and Harang 1.0 WAR this season, so they're not exactly living up to their current contracts at the moment.  Despite that, they continue to give the Reds more or less average production, as they have for several years.  They don't overpower guys; their stuff is basically average.  In fact, Arroyo's fastball only clocks in at 88.0, which is faster than only a dozen or so qualified starters in the majors.  Harang's is a more respectable, but still below average, 90.5.  

I've always thought of each of them as "innings-eaters", but after looking at the stats, I can see that's only really true of one of them.  Arroyo is working on a streak of five straight 200+ inning seasons and appears likely to get there this year as well.  In looking at the stats, I was surprised to find that Harang hasn't been so reliable these last few years.  Depending on how long his current back injury keeps him out, he could be looking at his third straight year of failing to hit 200 innings.  I tend to think that Harang is more likely to give you a big game, while Arroyo is more consistent and less likely to throw out a stinker.  The bottom line is, of all the guys on the staff, these two are the known quantities.  They're basically average pitchers who are going to give you six innings and keep you in the game more often than not.  Harang's inability to stay healthy at this stage of his career appears to make Arroyo the better bet going forward, both this year and in the future.  I think it is pretty safe to say that Harang's option will be declined next year.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds try to bring Arroyo back on a two-year $16-18M contract or something like that.

Bray Up, LeCure Down, and Thursday's Starter

The Reds called up Bill Bray, sending Sam LeCure back to Louisville after his rough start on Saturday.  Dusty Baker gave the impression that this was a temporary move.  According to reds.com

"We don't need his [LeCure's] spot for three or four more days, and we've got the Phillies coming in with all these lefties, so it's not a bad idea to have three lefties in the 'pen out there," Baker said. "When his spot comes up, then we'll see what our next move is. Sometimes when you're trying to win the pennant, you have to make these temporary auxiliary moves."

It is obvious that some kind of move will need to be made when a fifth starter is needed again, and if I am correct, that should happen on Thursday in Chicago against the Cubs.  I think there's a rule that says LeCure can't be called up again until he's been on the Louisville roster for ten days, unless he's replacing someone going on the DL.  With all the other talented options, this was probably it for LeCure.

That being the case, someone else will be getting that start.  Travis Wood has been pitching very well down at Louisville, and the Reds radio guys (Jim Kelch and Jeff Brantley, I think) seemed to suggest that they expected Wood to be the next guy to get the call.  He's due to pitch in Louisville on Thursday, so that seems to be the most likely scenario.  With Homer Bailey yet to throw rehab, I doubt he'd be in the discussion.

The wild card, I think, is Edinson Volquez.  He's looked really good in his rehab starts so far, and seems to be in line for a return to the rotation soon.  He's scheduled to pitch on Tuesday for the Bats.  With LeCure having a short outing on Saturday, it's not out of the question that LeCure could take that Tuesday start and free Volquez up for the Thursday start against the Cubs.  I'm not sure that the Reds would break Volquez's routine this soon though to make that happen. 

Wood is probably the most likely starter.  Regardless, it's pretty safe to say the move to send LeCure down is more permanent than Baker is letting on.

May Offense Brings September Baseball?

The Reds won again tonight, maintaining a one game lead over the Cardinals.  They crushed the Astros 15-6 in another blowout.  Sam LeCure made his major league debut tonight and pitched quite well, allowing two runs on six hits with five strikeouts and four walks in six innings.  He threw 98 pitches in picking up his first big league win.  Johnny Gomes was 4 for 4, finishing a double shy of the cycle.  (He had two singles.)  Drew Sutton hit his first major league grand slam (pinch hitting for LeCure in the 6th).  The Reds once again put the game away early and didn't look back.
With the Reds recent blowouts a couple of things have really come to my attention.  First, the Reds are taking advantage of playing some really bad teams.  They've owned the Pirates the last couple of times the two teams have played, going 6-1 with three shutouts.  Even the one loss was a 2-1 game that the Pirates pulled out with a ninth-inning homer.  The Reds have now beaten Houston all four games they've played this season, with none of the games being closer than two runs.  The Reds swept Milwaukee in the two game series that was the only time the two teams have met this year.  They've gone 2-1 against Cleveland and 4-2 against the Cubs (2-1 this month).  Since April 25, the Reds are 22-9.  They're 6-6 in that span against teams above .500 (the Padres, Cardinals, Mets, and Braves).  That means they're 16-3 against teams under .500 (Astros, Cubs, Pirates, Brewers, and Indians).  That four of the teams the Reds are beating up on are in their division certainly doesn't hurt.  If the Reds end up winning a Wild Card spot this season, the unbalanced schedule may well be a major contributing factor.

The second thing that caught my attention is that the Reds are actually really good.  I know, they're in first place; I should know they're good.  The thing is, I've never really thought of the Reds as having a legitimate chance of beating the Cardinals for the division.  I was hoping that maybe they'd get lucky and back into a Wild Card spot, but now, I'm starting to think they're for real.  In May, they've been outstanding at the plate.  According to fangraphs, they've got the highest-ranked wOBA of any team in the league in May at .371.  That's been aided by a .333 BABIP, which is also highest in the league, so they've been a bit lucky.  That's helped lift their OBP in May to .360, up from .322 in April.  On the other hand, they've also really been clobbering the ball.  Their ISO in May is .200, second only to the Blue Jays in all of baseball.  That's considerably higher than their mediocre .146 ISO in April.  They've basically gone from being an average to slightly below average hitting team in April to being one of the best hitting teams in baseball in May (and those stats don't even include tonight's game).

The funny thing is, I've looked at the Reds turnaround as being driven by their pitching.  It has felt that way, but that's largely because the rotation had such an ugly start to the season.  The starters are pitching much better now (3.90 FIP in May down from 4.69 in April), and the bullpen has gotten a bit better too (3.76 in May down from 4.18 in April).  Still, this is an average to slightly above average team on the mound, and I suspect this month's performance is more what we should expect from them.  (I should also point out that by "this month's performance" I mean the team FIP of 3.90 not the team ERA of 3.08.  They're not that good.)

So, what should we expect going forward?  I think we should expect the Reds to play somewhere between the way they played in May and the way they played in April.  I think they'll fail to play to that May level because the batters have been pretty lucky in May, the starting rotation hasn't really performed as well as their ERA suggests, and the schedule has been quite favorable.  On the other hand, the Reds were really bad in April, particularly in the early part of the month, and I don't think that was all that reflective of who this team is.  If you throw out the games prior to April 25 (when the Reds really turned things around), the Reds' runs scored and runs allowed suggests they should be a .686 team.  There's no way they're that good.  Prior to that though, their pythagorean win percentage of .349 suggested that they should lose more than 100 games.  They're not either of those teams.  They do appear to be pretty good though, and I'm starting to think that the Reds will be right in the thick of the division race when the calendar turns to September.

Random Thoughts as the Reds Pound the Pirates

Game Recap

The Reds seem to like their one game lead in the Central.  The exploded out of the gate tonight.  Johnny Cueto struck out the first two batters he faced on the way to a nine-strikeout, no run performance over 6 excellent innings.  Offensively, Scott Rolen snapped an 0 for 11 slump with a three-run homer in the first, and Jay Bruce followed with a homer of his own.  The Reds cruised from there to an 8-2 victory.

Transaction and Injury Notes

Drew Sutton was called up, taking the spot of Paul Janish who was placed on the bereavement list.  Sutton hasn't really done anything noteworthy in Louisville as far as I can tell, but this is just a temporary move. 

According to Mark Sheldon, Sam LeCure will get the start tomorrow in what would ordinarily be Homer Bailey's turn in the rotation.  LeCure has been excellent for Louisville so far this season.  On a staff that includes Aroldis Chapman, Travis Wood, and Matt Maloney, Lecure has been the Bats best pitcher so far this season.  That's really saying something.

In the majors, Joey Votto is sitting again due to the stiff neck that kept him out yesterday.  Also, Brandon Phillips left the game early tonight due to injury.  I wasn't really paying attention, but it didn't sound too serious from what I could tell.

On the Farm

Aroldis Chapman got the ball tonight for Louisville and pitched well.  Chapman fanned seven in five scoreless innings.  He only threw 90 pitches, which is better than he's been doing, but still a bit inefficient for my taste.  Still, it is exciting to think what Chapman can bring to the table when he's ready.

Devin Mesoraco is having another big night down in Lynchburg too.  He's 3 for 4 with a walk and hit his tenth home run on the season.  He hasn't shown much at the plate until this year.  Let's hope he keeps it up, because he's been excellent this season so far.  (It's a good thing too, because other than Mesoraco, it seems to me that the talent in the Reds system is either REALLY young or already in AAA - and other than the pitchers, the "top prospects" aren't showing me a whole lot this year.)

Beyond the Upper Deck - Not June 4!

I purchased tickets tonight to see the Reds live on June 4 against the Nationals in DC.  There's a chance that it may also be Steven Strasburg's MLB debut, although I read something today suggesting that the Nats are going to wait till mid-June to call him up.  That's a real head-scratcher.  My seats are in the left field corner, so its not like I'll be right on top of the action if Strasburg is there anyway.