Drew Stubbs Big Day

Drew Stubbs set off some 4th of July fireworks on Sunday against the Cubs, hitting three home runs in the Reds 14-3 romp.  The three home runs broke Stubbs out of a big slump.  The slump was so bad, in fact, that Dusty Baker met with Stubbs on Saturday morning and sat him out of the game that afternoon according to Mark Sheldon, basically saying that Stubbs needed to be more aggressive at the plate.  So, did Dusty's pep talk do the trick?  Obviously, he's not going to hit three home runs every game, but did Stubbs suddenly learn something that will push his game to a new level?

I suspect that this is all just a combination of lucky timing and bad Cubs pitching.  If you recall, a couple of weeks ago, I posted about the relationship between Contact %, Z-Swing%, wOBA, and ISO.  The impetus for that post was the frequency with which Stubbs strikes out.  I ultimately concluded that while Stubbs really struggles to make contact, he'd be better served by simply swinging at more pitches in the strike zone, echoing what Baker would later tell him.  When Stubbs went off yesterday, I wondered if he had changed his approach to be more aggressive.

Take a look at these charts from TexasLeaguers.com.  First, here are the pitches that Stubbs has swung at this season.

Maybe it's me, but this chart looks fairly sparsely populated on the outside corner (the right side).  Now, take a look at the pitches Stubbs has taken.

It appears to me that Stubbs rarely swings at pitches down and away.  The called strike picture tells a similar story.

The red points on this chart (the called strikes) certainly appear to be much more prevalent down and away in the zone.  It appears that Stubbs has trouble pulling the trigger on those down and away strikes.  I imagine teams would look to take advantage of that.  The Cubs?  Not so much.

Here are the same three charts from Stubbs game yesterday.  First, here are the pitches that Stubbs swung at.

Stubbs took eight swings in five trips to the plate, three of which ended up as home runs.  All eight of the pitches that Stubbs swung at were up and in the zone.  The home runs came on the two sliders and the curve ball.  I guess he was really on the breaking pitches.  What did he take?

It looks like Stubbs took eight pitches as well, five of them fastballs, and two of those down and away at the edge of the zone.  Go back and look at the first chart above.  See any red points down and away in the zone?  Not really.  Here, Stubbs got a couple, and just like the rest of the season, he didn't swing at them. 

If you ask me, the Cubs either didn't do their homework or executed their pitches very poorly.  Stubbs won't swing at fastballs down and away, and the Cubs pitched him up and in.  I doubt that Stubbs really did anything all that different yesterday.  He was a little more aggressive than usual on pitches in the zone, swinging at eight of ten strikes while his Z-Swing % on the year is just 63.2% (according to fangraphs.com).   Ultimately though, the pitches he saw were not the ones he struggles to swing at, so with such a small sample size, it's pretty hard to conclude that Stubbs had some kind of epiphany and will suddenly begin playing at a whole new level.  I hope he proves me wrong.

No Votto?!

Wow...  So the MLB All-Stars were just announced, and three Reds made the team: Scott Rolen, Brandon Phillips, and Arthur Rhodes.  I was hoping for four All-Stars for the Reds, but I really thought Arthur Rhodes wouldn't get the honor because his work is done in middle relief.  The other three were locks though.  Except one of them didn't make it!

I couldn't fathom the possibility that Joey Votto would be left off the team.  Granted, Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez are very good and deserving of All-Star spots in their own right, but in an AL park where the DH will be used, there MUST be a third spot on the roster for a 1B, right?  It's not even clear that Pujols and Gonzalez should have been given a spot ahead of Votto.  According to fangraphs, Votto has the highest WAR for NL first baseman with 3.6, a full half-win ahead of both Pujols and Gonzalez.  It's a bit different on baseball-reference.com where Gonzalez sits at 3.7 WAR to Votto and Pujols' 3.2.  It's pretty clear that the three have performed similarly well this season.  Plus, as I mentioned, the NL needs a DH.  The highest wOBA in the NL belongs to...  Joey Votto!  In fact, Votto's .425 wOBA is well ahead of Gonzalez' .386.  If Votto isn't the NL's starting first baseman, he should at least be the starting DH, right?  How did Charlie Manuel miss this?

Wait, I see how...  On my first read through the roster, I missed a player: Ryan Howard.  Yes, Ryan Howard, currently 8th in both wOBA (.367) and WAR (1.2) among NL first basemen was named an All-Star over Votto.  I guess Manuel didn't feel like he could pass up his own first baseman.  That's just wrong, but we know that managers do it every year.  It doesn't make it any easier to stomach though. 

OK...  Venting complete, let's look ahead.  Votto was at least extended the courtesy of being put of for the final vote for the NL, along with Heath Bell (Padres), Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies), Billy Wagner (Braves), and Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals).  Obviously, I think Votto deserves the spot, but let's make sure the numbers support that position. While Wagner (0.9 WAR) and Bell (1.3 WAR) have been pretty good as relievers, they don't compare to the hitters, so let's focus on Votto, Gonzalez, and Zimmerman.  Votto has been worth 3.6 WAR with a .425 wOBA, while Gonzalez (1.5 WAR, .356 wOBA) and a definitely solid Zimmerman (3.0 WAR, .372 wOBA) trail a fair bit behind.  (Gonzalez's numbers lag just a hair behind Jay Bruce.  Can you seriously make an argument that Bruce would deserve a spot on the team over Votto?)  Votto must be the pick here, right?  Well, maybe not.  The team already has three first basemen, but just two third basemen and four outfielders (and whatever Omar Infante is).  One of those other guys may fit the team's needs better.  My gut tells me that either Votto or Zimmerman gets the final spot.  It's a shame that those two guys aren't already assured of their spot.  They've both earned it, especially Votto.

Super for Jay Bruce, Not So Much for the Reds

In case you missed this bit of news, mlbtraderumors (via redreporter) indicates that Jay Bruce will be "Super Two" arbitration-eligible after this season.  He was the last player to qualify for Super Two status, edging out Chase Headley by two days.  What does that mean to the Reds?  Well, it means he will be able to file for arbitration, instead of earning $450K next season.  Bruce will probably finish the season with 3-4 WAR.  At $4.5M per win as the market rate, that's $13.5M-$18M as the market value for his services.  Typically, players get 40% of their market value in their first year of eligibility, 60% in their second, and 80% in the third and final year.  I'm not sure what to assume in the case of a Super Two player, as this will be the first year of four - not three like the typical player.  I'll assume that Bruce ends up getting 20% of his market value, but I'll project him to deliver 4 WAR.  If that's the case, Bruce will likely be awarded something like $4M for the 2011 season.  Unfortunately for the Reds, that's about an additional $3.5M that will not be available for other purposes.

With Harang and Arroyo potentially coming off the books next year, and an abundance of pitching in the high minors, it would seem that this $3.5M won't be a killer.  The bigger question is, will the Reds attempt to strike now and buy out a free-agent year or two.  As redreporter pointed out, it would be a great time to do it.  What would it take though?  Gee, Brett Anderson was a 3.8 WAR player for the A's in 2009, and he was given a 4-year, $12.5M contract with two club option years for an additional $20M just before this season.  Adjust for inflation, and we're looking at something like $13M-$14M to buy out Bruce's remaining arbitration-eligible years, with $20M-$21M getting a couple of years of free agency too.  If the Reds could get Bruce for $35 for the next six years, I'd think they'd jump at that opportunity.  I'll be interested to see what they do.

Bray Up, LeCure Down, and Thursday's Starter

The Reds called up Bill Bray, sending Sam LeCure back to Louisville after his rough start on Saturday.  Dusty Baker gave the impression that this was a temporary move.  According to reds.com

"We don't need his [LeCure's] spot for three or four more days, and we've got the Phillies coming in with all these lefties, so it's not a bad idea to have three lefties in the 'pen out there," Baker said. "When his spot comes up, then we'll see what our next move is. Sometimes when you're trying to win the pennant, you have to make these temporary auxiliary moves."

It is obvious that some kind of move will need to be made when a fifth starter is needed again, and if I am correct, that should happen on Thursday in Chicago against the Cubs.  I think there's a rule that says LeCure can't be called up again until he's been on the Louisville roster for ten days, unless he's replacing someone going on the DL.  With all the other talented options, this was probably it for LeCure.

That being the case, someone else will be getting that start.  Travis Wood has been pitching very well down at Louisville, and the Reds radio guys (Jim Kelch and Jeff Brantley, I think) seemed to suggest that they expected Wood to be the next guy to get the call.  He's due to pitch in Louisville on Thursday, so that seems to be the most likely scenario.  With Homer Bailey yet to throw rehab, I doubt he'd be in the discussion.

The wild card, I think, is Edinson Volquez.  He's looked really good in his rehab starts so far, and seems to be in line for a return to the rotation soon.  He's scheduled to pitch on Tuesday for the Bats.  With LeCure having a short outing on Saturday, it's not out of the question that LeCure could take that Tuesday start and free Volquez up for the Thursday start against the Cubs.  I'm not sure that the Reds would break Volquez's routine this soon though to make that happen. 

Wood is probably the most likely starter.  Regardless, it's pretty safe to say the move to send LeCure down is more permanent than Baker is letting on.

Back on Top!

It was a great night for the Reds.  A commanding 10-3 win over the Indians coupled with a 4-2 loss for the Cardinals puts the Reds back in first place by a half game.  Aaron Harang didn't pitch the cleanest game, but he got through seven innings on just 108 pitches despite walking five and giving up two home runs.  Logan Ondrusek and Micah Owings each threw a clean inning of relief.  Offensively, the Reds were paced by Drew Stubbs with a homer and 4 RBIs.  Scott Rolen added a homer, and Joey Votto extended his reached base streak to a MLB season high 33 games by drawing two walks.  Besides Harang, Votto was the only Reds starter without a hit.

By itself, taking first place back from the Cardinals would be a big night, but it was a great night for nearly the whole organization.  In AAA, Louisville's Travis Wood shut out Norfolk 7-0, striking out 9 in eight efficient innings.  At the AA level, the Carolina Mudcats had a solid 11-4 win behind the hitting of Kris Negron (2 for 4 with a 2B, HR, BB and 4 RBI) and David Sappelt (a double short of the cycle) and a solid start from Tom Cochran.  (If there was one down-side to the night, it is that Brad Boxberger gave up 3 runs in one inning of relief in his AA debut.)  At high A Lynchburg, James Avery struck out 7 in five innings as Lynchburg beat Kinston 9-1.  Brodie Greene had 4 hits, and Josh Fellhauer added 3 for the Hillcats.  Then there's Dayton.  They lost to Lansing 7-6 in 11 innings.  I guess you can't win them all.  On the plus side, Cameron Satterwhite continued his torrid hitting with 3 doubles and Tim Crabbe threw five one-hit innings (although he did walk six).

After a rough first half of the season for the Reds minor league teams - all four top teams were in last place in their respective divisions when Dayton and Lynchburg went to their All-Star breaks - it is good to turn the page and look ahead to the second half of the season.  Louisville has a 10 game deficit to make up on Columbus for the division and a 7 game deficit to Scranton for the wild card.  Unlike the other three minor league teams, they don't get to start with a clean slate for the second half.  Hopefully Carolina, Lynchburg, and Dayton will take advantage of this opportunity and put together a strong showing in the second half.  There is a lot of talent in the system.  They've just got to convert that into wins.  Tonight was a step forward for the organization.